Your setup
Both orders, % of notional. 0.1% ≈ two taker fills.
Ratio
Reward : risk
3.00 : 1
Long
After fees
2.81 : 1
Break-even win rate
25.0%
Break-even after fees
26.3%
Risk
2.00%
Reward
6.00%
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward:risk). Fees come off every winner and add to every loser, so tight stops need a higher win rate than the ratio suggests.
Break-even win rate by ratio
| Reward : risk | Win rate needed |
|---|---|
| 0.50 : 1 | 66.7% |
| 1.00 : 1 | 50.0% |
| 1.50 : 1 | 40.0% |
| 2.00 : 1 | 33.3% |
| 2.50 : 1 | 28.6% |
| 3.00 : 1 | 25.0% |
| 4.00 : 1 | 20.0% |
| 5.00 : 1 | 16.7% |
Find out which setups really pay
Flowsense measures your real win rate and average R for each setup, so you can see which ones clear their break-even and which don't.
FAQ
- How is the risk/reward ratio calculated?
- Distance from entry to target divided by the distance from entry to stop. Entry $100, stop $98 and target $106 is $6 of reward for $2 of risk, a 3:1 ratio.
- What win rate do I need to break even?
- 1 ÷ (1 + reward:risk). At 1:1 you need 50%, at 2:1 about 33%, at 3:1 25%. Fees push that number up, which the calculator shows.
- Is a higher risk/reward always better?
- No. Far targets get hit less often. What matters is expectancy: win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. A 1.5:1 setup that wins 55% of the time beats a 4:1 setup that wins 15%.
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