Win rate = winning trades ÷ total trades. Decide how you count break-even trades and stick to it, since including or excluding them changes the number. Win rates depend heavily on the strategy: trend followers often win 30–45% of trades with large winners, while mean-reversion and scalping strategies can win more often with smaller gains.
Example
Out of 80 trades, 36 were winners, 40 losers and 4 closed at break-even. Counting all trades, the win rate is 36 ÷ 80 = 45%. If the average winner is 1.8R and the average loser 1R, the break-even win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + 1.8) ≈ 36%, so you are about 9 points above it.
Why it matters
Knowing your win rate per setup sets realistic expectations for losing streaks. At a 45% win rate, a run of 8 losses in a row is more likely than not to happen at some point in 300 trades. Traders who expect to win most of the time often abandon good strategies during normal streaks.
Common mistake
Chasing a higher win rate by taking profits early and letting losers run. The win rate goes up while the average win shrinks and the average loss grows, and the expectancy ends up worse than before.
Put it into practice
- Free toolRisk/reward & break-even win rate calculatorEnter entry, stop and target to get the risk:reward ratio, the win rate you need to break even, and how fees change both.
- Free toolExpectancy & R-multiple calculatorTurn your win rate and average win and loss into expectancy per trade, the break-even win rate and profit factor. Plus the R-multiple of any single trade.
- In FlowsenseAnalyticsWin rate, expectancy, profit factor and drawdown from your own trades, broken down by setup, session and hold time.
FAQ
- What is a good win rate for trading?
- It depends on your reward-to-risk. With 1:1 trades you need more than 50%; with 3:1 trades, more than 25%. Compare your win rate with the break-even rate for your own average win and loss.
- Should break-even trades count?
- Choose one rule and keep it. Including them gives a lower, more conservative win rate; excluding them makes the number easier to compare with your average win and loss.
- How many trades do I need before I can trust my win rate?
- At least 50 to 100 per setup. Over just 20 trades, a strategy that truly wins 50% of the time can easily show anything from 30% to 70%.